Re: AA against 2 other players
I concur. In hand two, when you let six people see the flop by not raising preflop, your AA becomes well less than 50% to win -- not only do you run the risk of the second jack (or queen or whatever) coming on fourth street, but with 6 people, someone can randomly make trips or two pair on the flop.
On hand one, let's look at it from villain's perspective after your post-flop reraise. The pot contains $14 ($5 pre-flop + $1 UTG raise + $4 your reraise + $4 from LP). Let's further say villain has K9 and s/he puts you on AA.
Villain has five outs -- three Ks, two 9s. That's only 5 of 46 or slightly more than 10% to get one of those outs on 4th street.
However, if an out hits, the implied odds are great. Villain has an extra $16, which will probably be called and will win. So if villain makes the about 10% shot at the outs, s/he will win the $14 in the pot, plus an additional $16 from you (and that isn't assuming LP calls). That's over a 10% of winning $30 for a $3 investment. That, plus the fact that your reraise could be a bluff (let's face it -- the initial $1 raise shows weakness, so you could be bluffing) and it is a decent call for villain.
Thus, I think a larger post-flop raise is called for on your part to reduce the implied odds.
As far could you read that this person had a nine? It's one of a number of possibilities. They could have Q-10, 10-8, Ax of diamonds, or a nine or four. I would think that a jack could be ruled out, as the post-flop raise was too weak for that -- that bet indicates to me that it's a hand on the make.
All in all, I don't think the all-in on fourth street is bad (as I said, the raise post-flop could use somework). There is a significant enough chance that villain missed with the 9 and you take down the pot there.
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