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Old 08-06-2005, 03:43 PM
bluewilde bluewilde is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: DC
Posts: 372
Default Re: Hypothetical question

I'd have to be very confident he has a lower PP, or that he has one and only one overcard. It would suck to lose those 300 chips, but if I call and he shows me two cards above a T, I'm about 55% to win. If he shows me an overpair, I'm screwed. It would depend on how may players are left, but with some good stealing, I can get those 300 chips back fairly quickly.

So yeah, if he has two overcards I'm 55%, and I think I still have enough chips relative to the blinds to be more than a 55% favorite to place just by playing well and stealing effectively. However, I'm not confident that I can go on to place 70% (villain has only one overcard) or 80% (villain has an underpair) of the time if I fold, so I call if I can confidently put him on one of these dominated/semi-dominated hands. I doubt, however, I can do that most of the time, so most of the time I fold and mutter something about "should have pushed" (not saying I disagree with the raise, just that I don't love the response).
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