Re: a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn
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I was convinced I was behind MP on the flop.
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I don't understand why? A worse queen is a definite possibility, maybe even a jack. 0.6AF is passive, but not horrendously passive for such a high VPIP.
Do you expect him to have 2p or a set here? You appear to be getting an overlay from the guy in the middle drawing to possibly 3 outs as well.
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not everyone caps AK preflop
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True. But I would expect a cap from a 18% pfr, in a pseudo-blind steal/isolation situation, with position, with a very loose donk padding the pot.
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are you discounting 2 straight outs because of the flush or because of the likelihood of splitting?
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The 6 outs was just a ballpark number that I would expect you to have that justifies calling. I'd discount it for both; the BD flush is pretty unlikely and is only a problem 25% of the time when we hit our outs, so I'd knock off less than half an out for it.
So if we assume we split 1 time in 3, then that means 30% of the time we have half the effective outs, or 7.5*0.7+(7.5/2)*0.3 which gives us 6.375 outs. It's also true the limper might have AK a certain amount of the time; I don't expect it to be that often after his flop raise. Even for the odd time this happens, FWIW we're still drawing to 3 outs for a split. I think even after the discount for the possibility of AK we can make this call.
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also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise)
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If we believe MP can raise AK on the flop, that's a really good reason to 3-bet. This really contradicts with the statement that you're convinced that you're beat on the flop.
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