[Shillx]

If we check/raise the flop and all goes well.

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (2 SB + 3 BB) = +12 BB (we even get a check/raise in with the nuts!)
p(lose) = .685
n = -2 SB - 1 BB = -2 BB

EV = 12(.315) - 2(.685) = +2.41 BB/Hand

Now lets say we check/call. We check/raise when we hit the straight.

p(win) = .315
n = 3 (1 SB + 2 BB + 1 BB) = 10.5 BB
p(lose) = .685
n = - 1 SB - 1 BB = -1.5 BB

EV = 10.5(.315) - 1.5(.685) = +2.28 BB/Hand

So even if we get a check/raise in we gain .13 BB/Hand. There are lots of other factors too that you have to consider. Like maybe having someone 3-bet when we have the nuts, or people folding out when we check/raise the nuts. We also have to consider that the flop check/raise might backfire.

So if everything works out and we get super tricky and pull a 2nd check/raise off we make .13 BB. I guarantee you that if you check/raise the flop in this spot and I check/call, I will do much better then you in the long run.

Brad