Numbers dont lie people
You are dead wrong. A very good player who posted in the long flush draw thread would say that the flop check/raise is stupid. I just happen to call it awful. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
The thing you have to understand about a straight draw is that it is hidden. With a flush draw, everyone will slow down when 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s hit the board. When a 5 hits the board in this hand, who would expect someone to be playing 97s??? So because no one will notice the straight, you can collect an ass load of bets by being passive while you are still drawing (and then come to life whne a seemingly safe card hits).
If we check/raise the flop and all goes well.
p(win) = .315
n = 3 (2 SB + 2 BB) = +9 BB (we get one bet on turn/river with a straight)
p(lose) = .685
n = -2 SB - 1 BB = -2 BB
EV = 9(.315) - 2(.685) = +1.47 BB/Hand
Now lets say we check/call. We check/raise when we hit the straight. So we get 6 BB on that street alone!
p(win) = .315
n = 3 (1 SB + 2 BB + 1 BB) = 10.5 BB
p(lose) = .685
n = - 1 SB - 1 BB = -1.5 BB
EV = 10.5(.315) - 1.5(.685) = +2.28 BB/Hand
Check/calling >> Check/raising and it isn't even close.
Brad
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