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Old 12-16-2005, 05:07 AM
ilya ilya is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Party Poker
Posts: 460
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

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You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

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Well, you're getting a little short early on and I think that even against an UTG min-raise, you're ahead of his hand range. Also, I don't think that this is a spot you wanna fold, and it's not a spot you want to play OOP against 6 opponents, so I think that a push to isolate UTG is the best bet.

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I agree that I'm likely ahead of his range, but a push is a big overbet, so I am worried he will fold most of the hands I beat, except AK and perhaps TT. If he's raising with 88+, AQ+, and calls with TT+, AK...even assuming no one behind me picks up QQ+....

12 times i pick up 175
17.63 times i win 960
23.37 times i lose 885 and bust...

for a net loss of about 30 chips.

and there's an 8% or so chance that someone behind me has picked up QQ+.
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