View Single Post
  #40  
Old 04-14-2005, 04:34 PM
naphand naphand is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Bournemouth, UK
Posts: 550
Default Re: not a matter of odds?

[ QUOTE ]
The underdog dont want any more money coming into the pot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and no. The underdog would like to draw FREE as this is the most favourable position. However, there are plenty of occasions when facing a bet when drawing, that calling is still profitable; it is an easy call. With 25% equity in each bet going in and only 1 opponent we are taking the worst of it, but with a 4-handed pot every bet going in is breaking even (ignoring for amoment how pot equity changes according to number opponents).

I can see how if we put in 50% of the bets in a given round with only 25% equity we appear to be losing money. When we put in 1 BB with 25% equity, we are losing 0.5 BB (2 BB goes in, 1 BB from each player, of which we own 25% or 0.5 BB, we paid 1 BB for a net loss of 0.5 BB).

If there were an infinite, or even just a LOT of betting rounds, then this loss would really add up and chip away at our profitability. But pre-flop PFR was the favourite and put in 1 BB as the favourite against Defender (the equity would be different (TwoDimes shows 97s -vs- overs as 40:60). PFR has made an "equity profit" on Defender pre-flop, which further reduces his losses, as well as on the SB. This "profit" is only hypothetical as the flop now changes everything. But the "dead" money on the form of the residual pot from the pre-flop action now exists.

With sufficient $$ in the pot for PFR to call and profit from calling, he is not losing money on any given call. Calling the flop CR with better than 6.67:1 odds is correct and so profitable, as it would be on the Turn. Calling one card on the flop with correct 1-card odds and folding the Turn without proper odds is also profitable. Folding with correct odds is unprofitable and a losing play, calling with correct odds is a winning play. PFR is not losing $$ by calling correctly.

Technically,calling two more bets as a big dog is a loss, but if the correct odds are available to draw then how can this be a losing play? Looking at all bets together we can say "ah yes he out in 2 BB as a dog". But he did not put in 2 Bb at once, he drew to live cards which arrive with sufficient frequency to make calling profitable long-term. So how can you say calling correctly is a losing play?
Reply With Quote