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Old 10-30-2005, 06:52 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Shorthanded O8 hand, paired board, shortstacked opponent

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Do you realize that he has kings?

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daisyglaze - Yes. Plus he has the 2nd nut low draw. Plus he has a back-door nut flush draw. In addition, Hero has favorable position, very important for heads-up play.

Indeed, Hero's hand is normally a very good heads-up hand. And this particular flop, while horrid for the hand in a full game, is actually good for one-on-one play. (That's my opinion).

But SB has bet this flop.

Since SB has bet this flop there's a distinct possibility SB has a seven, and if so, SB is about a two to one favorite. (SB could also be bluffing, semi-bluffing, purely stupid, or something else).

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Folding would be terrible.

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I should have been more careful with my exact phrasing in my original response to Roundhouse. I tried to keep it brief and answer in the context of the post. You're taking it out of context.

(I was comparing play against a short stack to play against someone without a short stack, and should have made that clearer. Also see my response to Ben in this thread for an amended response to Rounhouse's question.)

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Folding would be terrible.

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Well... folding would not necessarily be "terrible," in my humble opinion. But I agree folding would not be the best option after many, maybe most, SBs bet this flop.

SB might not actually have a seven but I think that's what SB's second round bet represents. And if SB does have a seven, I'd rather not contest the pot. It's just not worth it.

Does SB have a seven? That is the question!

I wouldn't much like folding Hero's fine one-on-one hand to a second round bet from SB, because SB could be bluffing, semi-bluffing, or simply playing poorly. And the flop is not horrid for Hero's hand.

I don't like folding, but I don't like chasing either, and a raise seems rash. (I’d hate getting re-raised, the most likely scenario whether or not SB has a seven, assuming SB is a skilled opponent).

I don't think A3KKs has a very good chance to scoop after SB bets this flop. On the other hand, if SB has a seven, SB will often scoop and will almost always with for high. (I just simulated that to double check it and it checks).

If SB does have a seven, Hero should expect a bet from SB on the 3rd and 4th betting rounds (depending a bit on the actual cards involved and how things go). For example, in the case of two tens, as here, if Hero calls the flop bet, then Hero will be stuck calling the turn bet, and then Hero will be stuck calling the river bet.

In so doing, Hero will be risking his chips mostly hoping to get them back (assuming SB has a seven).

Hero will be hoping for a king or a low on the turn, and if Hero does make a low on the turn, will be hoping for a king on the river - and also hoping to not get counterfeited on the river. Hero is only going to see a king on the turn or river roughly one time out of eleven. (There are also some other possibilities for high for Hero, mainly the back-door flush draw - but since there’s already a pair on the board, Hero actually will lose more often than win with a back-door flush, assuming SB has a seven). Assuming SB has a seven, when things do work out favorably for Hero, Hero will mostly get his own chips back by winning low.

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Folding would be terrible.

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If you are referring to games where SB is going to bet this flop regardless of the cards in his/her hand (especially after Hero has indicated, with the pre-flop raise, that he/she probably does not have a seven), then I agree folding is not as good an option as raising.

Or maybe I'm missing something that seems obvious to you.

But at this point folding doesn't necessarily seem "terrible" to me, depending on the circumstances.

I do appreciate your opinion. I assume you have a rational basis for your opinion. It would be helpful to me (and probably others) if you were able to formulate the reason(s) for your opinion.

You really did take my remark out of context. (But I probably should have made the context clearer).

Buzz
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