Thread: Please evaluate
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Old 12-25-2005, 01:04 AM
async async is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 12
Default Re: Please evaluate

[ QUOTE ]
fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not getting 5:1 pot odds, you're getting about 2.8:1 (based on your description, pot is around T720 on flop, he bets T400, so you must call T400 against T1120, which is 2.8:1).

Let's assume for a moment that regardless of what comes, whether you call or push, the rest of the chips are going in. So really, assume you're being asked to call 850 against a pot of 1570. That's offering you 1.85:1 to call. This means for this to be a call, you must be 35% or better to win against villain's range.

Here are your chances against possible villain holdings (your win rate is shown). I'm going to list the likelihood of his holding, in my estimation. (note that in a lot of cases, like AA, it matters what suit his cards are, so in this case, the As hand represents "any AA with As" and the non-As hand represents the other combinations. Obviously, it's about 50/50 if he had AA for him to have As, since I don't necessarily think AsAd bets it any differently than AcAh on the flop)

KhKd: 43% [16%]
AsAh: 24% [16%]
AcAd: 54% [16%]
AsJc: 7% [15%]
QdQh: 43% [ 2%]
TcTd: 45% [ 5%]
AsKc: 28% [ 8%]
AdKc: 56% [22%]

So your total odds are:

(.43*.16)+(.24*.16)+(.54*.16)+(.07*.15)+(.43*.02)+ (.45*.05)+(.28*.08)+(.56*.22)

Or 38% to win against the hands the way I've identified them, which if you assume all the chips ARE going into the middle, means this is +EV if you were heads up.

However, these calculations only really tell you how you do against the pf raiser. The problem is, you have a *lot* of other people in the pot. What kind of hands like to limp and call raises? Certainly, aces you'll see plenty of. Therefore it is, I'd say, quite probably that the As is out. Heck, on a pure "number of cards basis", there are 10 cards in hands that are not yours out of 47. That means even in a purely random distribution, 21% of the time the As is out. Assuming that people tend to fold hands with aces a lot less often, I'd say the real odds are at least 33% of not more. Let's say he's holding KK, but someone out there has As2d. Your odds against KhKd, for example, fall from 43% to win, to 19%. Against AcAd, which you were over 50% to win against, your chances fall to 23%. I think we can discount at least 15-20% of your win rate because of this effect, meaning your "real" odds of winning are something closer to 31%.

I think your fold equity stinks here, because with all those limpers and callers, you're obviously in a loose game.

So, all in all... I'd say no, it's a fold postflop also.
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