[DireWolf]

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I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call


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First you say we have no FE. But now you say 5% of the time both will fold. Thats FE.

Second, where are you getting these numbers. You keep saying
that party players are so bad. i agree, so i think if UTG+2 has a hand that can call our push, he will call a lot higher percentage of pushes with UTG as well.


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I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o.


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This is the main reason you can not call. Lets look at you equity on the flop compared to the turn, if a blank hits.
i won't include UTG, but if you check it out you will find that whether UTG has an overpair doesn't really matter much to you.


FLOP:
Board: Js Qs 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.1717 % 47.17% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 52.8283 % 52.83% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }

TURN:

Board: Js Qs 7h 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.2490 % 29.25% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 70.7510 % 70.75% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }


So, you have to be totally sure UTG will push, or you won't be getting correct odds on the turn when when UTG+2 makes a large bet. Combine that with the 5% or so FE you have and i think you need to push.

For a call to be correct, you have to get remaining players to call AND UTG to push. I don't think this happens enough to not push here.