[pzhon]

You get blackjack about 1/21 of the time. You win with blackjack about 1/22 of the time. On average, you will play 22 hands before your first win with blackjack. I'm not sure what the house advantage is in live games, but if it is 0.5%, you will pay an average of 0.11 bets before you win with blackjack, $0.55.

That must be added to the nominal value of $2.50, for a total cost of $3.05. It looks like it is cheaper to pay $3 unless the house advantage is lower than about 0.45%.

It may be cheaper to play for it if you can get the chip in other ways, such as by taking insurance or surrendering. I'm not sure what the optimal strategy is if you can get a pink chip in these ways.