Re: Big draw vs. shorty. Your play?
Thanks for your analysis Tilt - but I have to mention that your calc is way off.
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Now lets suppose we are sure that SB is check/folding. Then the question is simple. Do you like 100% of 32.50 more than you like 61% of $83.50? The answer is clearly yes.
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In the $83.50, you put in $25 of the pot. You also didn't subtract the -EV for $25 that you would lose.
In your second example, expected return of check-call is 0.49 x $83.50 - 0.51 x $25 = $28.
The thought of calculating expected return with the side pot vs. the SB hurts my head. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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