Re: Big draw vs. shorty. Your play?
Hey Joe, NH.
Suppose we give him credit credit for a really strong overpair...
pokenum -o ah ks qh qs - ac ad 4c 4d -- th 7c jh
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs Ah Qh 500 60.98 320 39.02 0 0.00 0.610
Ac 4c Ad 4d 320 39.02 500 60.98 0 0.00 0.390
Now lets suppose we are sure that SB is check/folding. Then the question is simple. Do you like 100% of 32.50 more than you like 61% of $83.50? The answer is clearly yes.
Now suppose we think SB is check raising a set, like this one:
pokenum -o ah ks qh qs - ac ad 4c 4d - ts td 5s 5c -- th 7c jh
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 7c Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs Ah Qh 327 49.10 339 50.90 0 0.00 0.491
Ac 4c Ad 4d 31 4.65 635 95.35 0 0.00 0.047
Ts 5s 5c Td 308 46.25 358 53.75 0 0.00 0.462
So even in that case you are substantially +EV. The answer is clearly to check and get all-in (unless you don't like variance, in which case you don't like PLO). I don't think the villain can have a side card combo that really changes the result.
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