[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually call down but i'm going to check that's correct.

HU on the turn after you call you'll be getting 6:1, on the turn it's going to cost to 2BBs more to call down meaning 4:1 at showdown. Ok

I'm not including 56, even though it's a very likely hand, most boards when this happens to me don't contain an obvious draw and don't pair on the turn, so turn card was a 2. I should also discount 47 since it's less likely, but i'm lazy.

Hands/Combinations/Outs against

47 - 9 - 5
A7 - 6 - 3
A4 - 6 - 3

So 12 times you have 3 outs, and 9 times you have 5, meaning 4:3 that it's 3 outs VS 5. Meaning your outs avg at, (12+15)/7 = an avg of 3.8 outs, meaning you need roughly, 11:1 in effective odds to call down. Hence you are short.

So you need to be good x% of the time, and in that x% you'll win the pot plus the calling down 2BB, which is a total of 8BBs.

8% (3.8 outs) of the time you win by improvement, (100 - x% - 8%) lose, x% of the time you win by having the best hand.

The win amount must equal the loss amount to breakeven:

8% * 9BB (6bb pot + 3bb in implied odds) + x% * 8BBs = (92 - x) * 2BBs. Solving that, 72 + 8x = 184 - 2x => x = 11.2%

11% of the time you need the best hand on the flop to at least breakeven, i'd expect on party to have the best hand 4:1, hence the profit in calling down.

Wow that was long. P.S. There's more of this in Ed's book that's coming out (i think), so if you are lost through all of that, it's probably a good idea to order it.

[/ QUOTE ]

good analysis..

my play: call turn and call river, and go to sleep.