Re: 150-300 PAYOFF
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You gots to pay off here. Tight/weakish blinds are very fond of playing big aces like this.
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Why do you think the opponent has A-high? I have very hard to understand why a good player would bet a hand like that on the river.
When the opponent bets out on the river I put him on two type of hands:
1. A strong hand. He is valuebetting a big pocket pair, trips, full house etc. Maybe he just called your 3-bet on the flop with the intention to checkraise you on the turn. When you failed to give him this opportunity he now bets the river in an attempt to atleast get some value of his hand. He has no reason to believe you will bet the river after you checked the turn so he can't go for a checkraise again.
2. A hand without showndown value. Maybe he took a shot at you on the flop with some weak holding. Maybe he also has a flushdraw, but a low one without showdown value. Nevertheless, he now bets the river as a last desperation move to steal the pot. He knows his hand doesn't have any chance to win if he checks. But your turn check indicated that you were on a flush draw and if your hand doesn't have any showdowndown value you will probably fold.
All other types of hands won't bet the river IMO. This means hands that are not strong enough to valuebet the river, but still has showndown value. This group includes hands like A-high, K-high, pair of deuces, threes. A pair of fives will probably bet the river. Why would the opponent bet a hand like A-high on the river? A bet like that has no value. No worse hand will call and a better hand will not fold. The best he can do with that hand is to check and maybe induce a bluff.
I play at stakes far from 150-300, so maybe I should not respond to this thread at all...
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