[aba20]

QQ-AA occurs 85% of the time and he calls 50% and folds 50%

Calls

EV = $1802*.304 + $0*.696 = $612.68

Folds

EV = $1202*1 = $1202

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.5 + $612.68*.5 = $907.34


JJ occurs15% and he calls 100% and folds 0% (Too high? Should JJ = 7.5%, AK = 7.5%, QQ-AA = 85%)

Calls

EV = $1802*.152+$0*.848 = $273.90

Folds

EV = $1202

JJ EV is $273.90 * 1 +$1202 * 0 = $273.90


Total EV = $907.34*.85 + $273.90*.15 = $812.35, So I lose $87.68 if he calls 50% of the time.


Now if he calls 25% and folds 75% with QQ-AA and still calls 100% of the time with JJ

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.75 + $612.68*.25 = $1054.67, So I gain $154.67

Total EV = $1054.67 * .85 + $273.90 * .15 = $937.56, So I gain $37.56

Calculating the QQ-AA call fold ratio to break even

Total EV = [$1202*X + $612.68*(1-X)]*.85 + [$273.90]*.15 = 0

X = .689, So if I estimate that he will fold call 31.1% of the time or less I should move my money into the middle of the pot. I was surprised how close it was either way. Even if he calls 100% of the time I only lose $338.14. This analysis also doesn’t take into account that I don’t think that he would play JJ in this way. I doubt he would be betting the pot on a draw less board on the flop and turn with the nuts, but maybe. I would appreciate any feedback on my analysis.