Re: types of probability
"Static" probability is not a type of probability, it just means someone didn't update the probability for subsequent events. For example, the chance that someone is dealt pocket Aces in Hold'em is 1/221. But if someone's hand is shaking as they reraise preflop, the probability goes up to maybe 1 in 10. The latter is called a "conditional" probability because it factors in additional information.
Generally the relevant probability for decision-making is conditional on everything you know. So saying someone is reasoning from static probabilities means they're letting math blind them to the value of observation. This is like someone who read in a Poker book that, say, you should always slowplay a top pair; and therefore does that regardless of situation or opponents, without keeping track of whether it actually works or not.
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