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Old 08-18-2005, 05:02 AM
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Default Re: River decision with flush

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The only thing that definitely calls me is a set in which case I'm only 40% to win. That would be a terrible play, right?

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Edit: I just ran the numbers for two pair. Assuming MP has 8-6s for two pair (the only other hand that might reasonably call), I'm only 48%. So obviously getting called by two pair would be bad too.

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You should take into account the money already in the pot. If you push after the first raise on the flop, you are risking less than $100 in order to win at least $117 if you are heads up against the set. Yes, you'll lose EV in this case, but it wont happen here every time you push.

Youre in good shape (+EV) if a two-pair calls, and even better if it folds. Thats the beauty of fold equity.

The only bad thing that can happen I think is someone with the better flush draw calling your push.

Ojo_Rojo

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OK. But in both of these situations (2 pair and a set) are pretty marginal, right? they might be slightly +EV, but not by much. I guess it seems to me that most of the hands that I want to call are the hands that fold. But these are the same hands (TPGK) that I could probably squeeze more out of even after I hit. Wouldn't it be better to play after the flop with those hands? It just seems to me that I'm either called by hands that make it pretty neutral EV, or folded to hands that would make it a +EV. I understand the fold equity here, but it seems that I really only have fold equity against hands that I don't want to fold. Am I missing something?

It also seems like in this situation, I have great implied odds with my straight draw, because it would be much more deceptive. But those implied odds would only exist if I play after the flop.

I would also point out that in this particular hand, I have two opponents, both of whom have shown strenght. I think that has to be taken into consideration.

Again, this is a situation that I'm really confused about and always feel uncertain about how to play. So thanks for the comments.
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