[ACPlayer]

While there are good reasons to think you are ahead there are 2 reasons why very thin value bets may not be a good idea in some games.

1. If you are known to be a very thin value bettor then you are more likely to be called if you bet a busted draw on the river by observant players.

2. If you are known to be a very thin value bettor who can also fold then you are more likely to be bluff raised by a tough player. This is something I do with fair success in Stud not so much in hold em.

These are both secondary issues but may shade your decision to not value bet 44 in this situation.