[nate1729]

Say the button does this with any two cards. He's betting 1450 to win 50. Say you only call with AA-JJ. When he's called he wins the 2900 pot 11% of the time; when he isn't he wins 50. You'll get AA-JJ (1/17)*(4/13) or about 2% of the time. So the EV of this play for him is .98(50) - 1450 (.02)(.89 - .11) or approximately +23 chips.

Obviously, the fact that folding AK is exploitable by a strategy against which you should call with AK does not, in itself, prove anything. But my instinct is that, absent reads, folding to a 29BB all-in raise is slightly too tight. Of course you might have a general read that says you should fold, or tournament considerations might swing this to a fold, or, most likely, he might be (soundly) pushing with far fewer hands.

I think the decision is close, and didn't want all the replies to this thread to be dismissive noes.

I should really get an actual knowledge of game theory someday...

--Nate