RESULTS
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I think 98s (non spades) is really the only thing a reasonable player plays this way.
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Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! Johnny, what do we have for Ghazban?
The river bricked and the guy flipped 8c9c for the idiot end and a giant pot. I'm not sure I would have played his hand especially with 3 people in the pot and even if he hits his hand both of us could be drawing very live against him.
This is a tough one and also one where some good math can be done. I'll work on it over the next few days from a Bayesian perspective. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see if it's smart to get away from it. I tossed and turned about this hand all night long and I'm not sure given the guys range of hands that a laydown is best. It might be, but I think a little more detective work is required. The biggest mitigating factor might be the presence of the button behind me. It seriously degrades the probability that the SB might be bluffing or semi-bluffing wtih a draw. It only seems logical to me that he has a made hand. With the button still in the hand, the SB's bet seems like nothing other than a big giant hammer.
Oh, and to be completely honest, I NEVER saw the double gutter. Doh!
Thanks for all the replies.
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