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Old 06-29-2005, 12:15 PM
Ghazban Ghazban is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Boston, MA
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Default Re: Poker is a partial information game

I agree that AsKs, KsQs, and QsJs are all well within the realm of possibility (though QJs is a little less likely for someone to call raise with out of position).

In my mind, the evidence against those holdings is this:

Why play them so strong on the turn but so passively on the flop? KQs is a big draw on the turn but it was a pretty big draw on the flop, too (pair+flush draw). It seems weird for villain to play a big draw aggressively with one card to come when he didn't play it aggressively with two. QJs is a little more credible in this department as it can now beat an overpair as well as having outs against a set but reasonable villains don't usually call raises with QJs out of the blinds (even with button's call in front). AsKs might play this passively on the flop but why would it bet so much on the turn? Its got the current nuts with a redraw to the nut flush. The only thing it could possibly be worrying about is the board pairing and it doesn't need to overbet the pot to protect against that.

I think 98s (non spades) is really the only thing a reasonable player plays this way.
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