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Old 07-11-2005, 03:02 PM
Nightwish Nightwish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 182
Default Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn

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To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly.

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Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?

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Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

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Alright, let's go through the math. There are 10.25 BB in the pot (no clue where you're getting 11.5) when the action is to the BB. So if you think 3-betting the turn is right just because the others might fold, you need them to fold at least 9 percent of the time. There's no way you will take it down right here that often. But of course, a reasonable assumption is that the BB also has 0-5 outs. The problem, of course, is that even 4 outs is not enough. So the BB would have to assume that he has 5 outs or more to make even a call correct, much less a 3-bet.

Again, I stand by my original statement that this sort of play is -EV high-variance chip spewing.
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