Re: Making a slightly negative ev play to build a stack in NL
NOTE: The math below might not be accurate, I'm pretty sure I did everything right, but if anyone finds a mistake in the math, please point it out.)
_____________________
I agree with Shnarf.
Making -EV plays in order to have a better chance of winning the tournament could actually be profitable.
Lets say you are a good player and as of right now, you have a 25% of winning an SNG. Now youre deciding whether to make an -EV play and try to double up, in which if you do, your chances of winning the tournament increase to 70%. So now it becomes worth it to gamble as a 40% on an even money shot.
Ok so assume you call. 60% of the time you are out of the tournament and lose. 40% you win and double up. 70% of that 40% (which is 28% total) you will end up winning.
So lets say you play the 55s.
Out of 100 situations.
You will lose $3,300. (55 x 60 = 3,300.) 55 represents the buyin and 60 represents the percentage of times you will lose that hand and be knocked out.
You will win $7,000. (250 x 28 = 7,000.) 250 represents the 1st place prize money and 28 represents the percentage of times you will win the tournament.
So you make a total profit of $3,700.
Now lets assume you would fold that hand and end up winning only 25% of the time. So:
25 x 250 = $6,250 is how much you would make.
75 x 55 = $4,125 is how much you would lose.
6,250 - 4,125 = $2,125 profit if you fold.
___________________________________________
So now we do: $3,700 - $2,125 = $1,575 TOTAL PROFIT over the course of 100 similar situations if you decide to call. Do you see how much 3% increases your profit (going from a 25% if you fold to a 28% if you call and win)? That's more than 28 buy-ins worth of profit.
Also, this is not even taking into account if there are three players. Say your down to the last 3 players and if you fold, you are more likely to get a 3rd than if you call and win. If you double up, your chances of getting at least a 2nd place increase dramatically because you have just doubled your chips and have also decreased someone elses stack. So with folding, you can estimate you have about a 25% to win, a 30% to get 2nd, and a 45% to get third. With calling and winning the hand, you get a 28% to win, a 45% chance to get a 2nd, and a 27% to get a third. So calling with -EV will also get you more seconds that when you decide to fold.
Remember tho: you have to be a good player in order to make these kinds of plays, so not any regular schmo can just make them and say it was the right thing to do.
|