Re: Too passive??
I would usually fold on 3rd but that’s just me.
4th is where things get ugly…easy fold IMO. You have a pair of deuces and a dead 3-flush. That really isn’t all that great.
I did some math and it seems to suggest that 5th is a call. I just assume he can have any pair lower that jacks as well as two clubs:
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="white"> __ </font> 36 ways
99 <font color="white">_____ </font> 3 ways
KK <font color="white">_____ </font> 3 ways
33-TT <font color="white">_ </font> 25 ways
So you’re ahead 25 times and behind 42 times (this assumes that he wouldn’t slow play split kings on 3rd in that spot).
I’m not sure though… the right play could still be to just bet out and hope that seat 8 will call one bet and then one more if seat 3 raises. I would have to do some more math to at least get some idea what the better play could be, but I’m too tired right now. Maybe tomorrow.
Edit: I just thought about this some more and noticed that my math is completely off if he is the type of player that would limp on 3rd with three big cards. There are nine broadway cards left in the deck on 5th (discounting kings), so there are 36 ways he can have two of them in the hole.
Which would mean that your ahead 61 times and behind 42 times…
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