[LoaferGee12]

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50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish. We don't want to take it as gospel, either, but we can look and see that this guy probably isn't raising all that many hands preflop, and we're up against something good. Granted, there are exceptions. I was up against a guy on UB about a month ago who had a PFR of about 5%, but I was iso-3betting him with KJo, A8o, and stuff because he only raised junky hands. He slowplayed his good stuff. There aren't very many of these guys, though. Barring a real read, we can't assign a significant probability to this guy only raising his junk hands.

Just as we do Bayesian analysis when we consider hand ranges, the same math applies to opponent ranges. There's a probability this guy's true stats are 25/2. He might also be 30/10. Or 10/1. Or 40/20. He might be raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands, the 2nd 10%, or the bottom 10%. However, base on the ranges of players who, after 50 hands, have these stats, it's most probable that this guy has a VPIP of 20-30, a PFR of 1-7, and is raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands. Even if you want to completely disregard stats until you have thousands of hands of data on the guy, you're most correct to look at the average player from your database. This would be something like a VPIP of around 35, PFR around 12, and raises from a subset of the top 20% of hands. I'd strongly consider folding against this guy, too.

If someone is going to convince me that this is indeed a call preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure, you're going to have to make a much more convincing case than just saying "sample size too small."

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Couldn't have put it better myself. Nice post.