About your S&P trade.Here is the problem.You want

to sell 300 furures and buy 150 1000 calls,100 950 calls and 50 900 calls.You need to tell us which month you have in mind.This is the same trade as buying the puts of those strikes except

1. you will have to lay out huge amounts of cash

2. Because these calls are deep in the money the

floor broker will build in a margin of error when

you get your quote.

3.I am assuming you are doing the futures and options simultaneously,if you are "legging in"

the above does not apply.Other wise you are better off just buying the puts outright.


Regarding my trading style.There are only a few trades that I have done that could be considered "black box" style trades.I am going to show you a trade that made me tremendous sums of money over the last last 20 years.One of my trading maxims is to admit things have changed and to get out.I was doing this trade for so long and had made SO MUCH MONEY over the years that at one point I considered only doingthis trade when it occured.Here it is.Idon't mind pasing it along now that it no longer works.I will admit taking a HUGE lumpbecause my refusal to get out last year when the trade finally failed.Here it is..Andbelieveme this was the holy grail.I could not figure out why the whole world did not do this.Take the price of the near term swiss franc futures price.Subtract the price of the near term deutschmarks price.Multiply that number by 4 and subtract it from the price of the DMark.When ever that number fell below 300 buy 4 dmark and sell

5 sf.For 30 years that number averaged about 800.

Two or 3 times the trade actually went to a credit but only stayed there for a couple of days.

I would start putting on "packages" at around 300

and keep averaging down.I didn't care how many I had.When the DM became the EURO I used the same formula using 1.95583 DM's to the EURO. I took a beating that took almost a year to recover from.


Here is the trade I legged into Friday after stating the bonds had been up sharply and there were opportunities in the Feb Options.This is not a trade I typically do because I did it for debits

and Ilike to collect as a GENERAL rule.I sold 30

Feb 105 calls at 18 and bot 20 feb 104 calls at

34.I did each one 2by 3for 10 debit.I may have reached to far for this trade.Normally, I would want credits for this type of trade as it gives you many more profitable exit strategies.


Regarding confidence,I don't need to reduce all

my trades to algorithims.All I need to know is I have consistently made money relying on my judgement.