[goofball]

All- Folding the flop is bad. Are we just going to automatically give him credit for the ace here? Given that, my options are checkcall down or 3betlead. I chose the latter, here's why. If I checkcall down I'm allowing him to play the river almost perfectly, checking behind hands I beat and betting hands I don't. If I'm going to just call the flop and the turn I think I should fold the river. If I get to the river with him he'll check behind TT or 76s or something else I beat, he'll bet A4 or something. I don't think he has pure air enoguh to justify a call on the river.

However, yes he may have the A but he'll also have second pair or a lower pocket pair sometimes. Remember it's a blind steal situation, he didn't raise UTG or anything. He might have me beat but he might not. Since I'm likely going ot go to showdown I should take the lead and force him to put in the same amount with his whole range.

I was frustrated with it last night, but looking at this now I don't even think the river bet is a mistake. The board is so dry he'll call me with every hand he's here with and that includes hands worse than mine. Even though I'm a dog when I'm called betting is still better. Think about it this way. If I bet he'll call with his worse hands and most of his better ones as well. If I check he'll bet his better hands and check his worse ones. Betfolding wins a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a big bet when I'm behind. Checkcalling wins a small fraction of a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a full big bet when behinid.

Come to think of it, I think IO remember reading about this kind of spot in HEPFAP or maybe one of mason's poker essays.