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Old 10-27-2005, 12:11 PM
djhoneybear djhoneybear is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 102
Default Re: Overpair turns OESD and faces aggression

Given they way this guy plays two pair is probably another range of hands to consider. Lets say there is a 20% chance he is bluffing because the board is scarey. There is a %30 percent chance you are ahead to his one pair. There is a 15% chance he has 2 pair and a %35 percent chance that he has trips or a straight.

These seem like conservative numbers given the opponent.
so:

20% of the time you win 95% (approx.)
30% of time you win 85%
15% you have 12 outs to win (25%)
35% you have 6 outs to win or tie (12%)

My numbers may be a little rough (I'm just doing this in my head like you might in this situation) but they seem like you have the right odds to continue. I think my numbers might also be a little conservative. Push all-in. If you do win the hand with a modest holding it will also send him a message for all future hands.
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