[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if I'm doing this right, but from values I plugged in to the ICM calculator:

Assuming shortie does not pick up connection next hand, if you muck this hand and next, letting villain pick up the short stack gives you a stack of 880 to 7120, for EV of 0.322. Pushing and winning (and let's assume you subsequently muck from the button next hand so big stack picks up shortie's blind) gives you a stack of 2060 to 5940, for an EV of .3515.

So, assuming you push and win X% of the time, you need:

.3515X + .2(1-X) >= .322

Or, about 80.5% of the time. <smarmy>So, verify that villain has, in fact, been dealt one card, and that it matches one of your own before pushing.</smarmy>



[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit. Completely forgot about the time he folds. Okay. Your EV when you push and villain folds is .3375. Let's assume he looks you up on top 25% of hands (is that enough of a range to include 97o? i don't have SNGPT in front of me right now).

So, X is actually dependent on the calling range (big surprise). Let's say villain looks you up 25% of the time. This means that the formula is actually:

.75(.3375) + .25[(.3515X + .2(1-X))] >=.322

So, you'd need to win only 62% of the time.

I guess this type of problem is highly sensitive to the breadth of the calling range.

I also wish I had SNGPT at work.

Edit: Of course, trying to determine the appropriate calling range is probably why OP posted in the first place. [forehead smack] Sorry, y'all.