Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. The problem here is you have to work out if someone is already holding a J - even if they do, opponents will need an A for the chop - i think for UTG to play this way AK and JJ are possible given the player's nature. In a way both shaft you because you're behind in both.
With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly. I know i said 3 outs earlier but the more i think about this the more it's a turn fold...
such a tricky hand. we need some MHHUSHers to read this. Btw, it's already on the shortlist for the digest.
Pete
|