[geardaddy]

I think you need to push here. I'm a cash player, but trying to get better at tourneys. I've just finished reading HOH II and thought this was a perfect hand for (SHAL) Structured Hand Analysis. Before reading this I would have found this an easy fold. When I read your post... I said easy fold. Then, I crunched the numbers...Not such an easy fold after all. Let's assume that you go all-in, you only need to have everyone fold 40% of the time to break even, and this assumes you lose every time your called!( which of course you wouldn't) Looking at M's your almost down to 5. If you go all-in and no one calls your over 9. If one person calls and you win your over 13.
Now lets calculate some real numbers. Lets say the blinds will only go in with A's through Q's and AKs/AKo. This would represent 2.8 percent times 2 equalling 5.6. Lets say the UG and caller are loose and will call with any pocket pair AK-AJ suited or non-suited and KQ suited or non-suited. This represents 11.1% times 2 players equalling 22.2. Add those toghther and you get called 27.8 % of the time.
This would mean that on 72.2 % of the hands you would earn $1925. Putting you way up on the EV, not to mention that you would be 50% against a lot of the hands that called you. The only way I think this would be a bad play is if you "knew" the UG had big pair. And nobody is that good!