[Shillx]

Sorry if this post is super confusing.

I don't know what a typical hand range is here, but this is what I'm thinking when he raises the flop.

AA - KK > AQ - Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (dunno what x is) > QQ > JJ >> AK and TT

So if TT isn't an option for his range here, I don't really think that AK should be included either. I don't really like just calling the turn and folding the river UI because we will sometimes be folding the best hand. If he can have JJ+/AQ-AT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], we are making a mistake should we fold it on a brick.

A good player should be playing this hand really carefully with soemthing like JJ or TT imo. If he has JJ, he is behind when you have a better overpair and he has the 3rd player drawing really thin when you have overcards. If JJ is actually the best hand on this board, it does him no good to knock out any potential losses in the deck (namely aces through queens) that the 3rd player might hold since you are holding them too when the jacks are good. Let the guy put bets in with KT when he is drawing to running tens or a running 9+8.

So when a very good player raises the flop, I start worrying that he has AA or KK and don't really fear QQ down. Then to mix it up he should also raise big flush draws (say AQs and AJs). So in that case you will be somewhere in the range of a 9:1 dog and you are getting 9.7:1 to call the turn. You can see why this would put you in a quagmire.

Against someone who plays a bit worse I would probably calldown because you will see lower overpairs more. And if I don't outdraw them, I'm getting such a good price to call the river and hope that they are on a flush draw or AK. I'm sure it will win $$$ net but if he can't have TT (and therefore can't have AK) when he raises the flop (but can have JJ) I would fold the turn.

Brad