View Single Post
  #4  
Old 12-09-2005, 04:12 PM
schwza schwza is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???


[ QUOTE ]
***BTW, I think CEV and $EV Diverge a great deal here, and even if we sure of his opening and calling range, I am not convinced this a good push from a $$ perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
That is an EV of +2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

this is increasing our stack by ~11% in expecation. i would pass up a gamble that's known to be slightly +cEV, but this is way too much to pass on, imo.

also consider what happens if we have mis-guessed his calling range (assuming we still have ATs). say that our guess was

too tight so he's calling with some more hands. so instead of 88+ / AJ+ he's now calling with 55+ / A8+ / KJ+. i don't have pokerstove to do the fancy analysis, but you love getting getting called by A8/A9, you're a little unhappy about 55-77/AT, and you're about indifferent about KJ+. so you're a little happier if his range is a little looser than AJ+/88+.

too loose say he calls only with AQ+ / TT+. that's obviously huge for us - we really don't want to get called by 88/99/AJ.

so we're at +2.5 bb with AJ+/88+, and it's going to be a little better if he's looser and way better if he's tighter. so +2.5 bb is really a worst case, as long as we're right about his raise % (and his calling range isn't something bizarre like 22+, AT+).
Reply With Quote