Re: Doomsday Thereom
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For the record I said 50 billion, and I'm curious why don't you think I'm close on this?
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I think you main confusion is here.
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If you give each human to ever exist a number from 1 to N in order of when they were born , the number we and every one else has recieved (around 50 billion for us I am guessing) was random
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The numbers cannot be both random and ordered.
Your argument that ends in the “7% chance I will be alive when the last person to ever be born will be born.” Assumes that the numbers are random. In particular this bit
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Now, given that x (me) has an equal chance to be any integer between and including 1 and N,
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However your assumption that your number x=50 billion is based on the assumption that the numbers are ordered. If they are instead are random then there is absolutely no reason why it should be anywhere near 50 billion.
If you choose a series of random numbers between 1 and 1000, There is absolutely no reason why the 123 rd random number should be anywhere near 123.
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I may not have made this clear, I was trying to imagine an alternate universe where some how you know you are the only person alive, or one of two more like.
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* bangs head against wall *
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