Re: Playing suited connectors
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But if you are villian facing 2 back to you without a flush or str8 draw, what do YOU do?
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I look at the pot and the board, figure that somebody's pumping a draw, check to make sure the pot odds are right for me to draw to whatever I'm drawing to and continue or not. If I've got 6 outs, though (UI overcards), I'm continuing, since the only hand that somebody made on this board that I'm worried about is a set, and I have to see more evidence than this of a set.
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I make it up when it DOESN'T kill my action.
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Take the same guy with UI overcards. You have to see a draw-heavy board. Are you betting out again when a card that completes one of the draws falls?
The problem with this is that you are counting on somebody else to take the initiative to give you the opportunity to make your play. If you go to war on the flop, you are making your play for yourself.
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When you make your hand and the aggressor bets out on the turn, you stand to make an extra ~85% of a possible 8BB. You can see how infrequently this line has to be correct to be more profitable.
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I can't argue with your numbers...hell, I'm not even going to bother checking them. But your thinking is still dependent on someone acting for you...not only someone, in fact, everyone. I can't count the number of times I've seen a capped flop where half the field bailed out for one on the turn.
Your numbers are all right, but you're depending too much on other people to bet in a manner that benefits your play, IMO.
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