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And finally, given the specifics of this particular hand, in my opinion, folding would only be a clear play given a pretty strong read on SB as a scared money tightwad.

eastbay

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Interesting, because it's a pretty thin call for a lot of ranges for villain. I think this is because of what I noted earlier, Hero's equity goes down 100% when he loses, but only increases by about 50% when he wins, so he needs to win about 2/3 of the time to make this +$EV. AKo is that big a favorite against any two, or even as much as about top 40%, but it's only barely that good against the whole "range of ranges" from 40% to 100%, making calling effectively break-even. Now, perhaps there's value in having the big stack and knowing what to do with it that argues for a call if villain's range is that big, but then there's the problem with the cases where it isn't.

If Villain is pushing top 30% we're down to -.4%, and it gets rapidly worse from there (the average default range is -3.2%). I don't feel like mucking around with an ICM calculator (and I'm hoping SNGPT adds equity changes for all players in a hand at some point), but I'd assume that one of the reasons Hero's equity goes from effectively break-even to massively negative is that calling here is actually transferring equity to the two players not in the hand, whereas folding is largely just giving a little more equity to the big stack.

What's even more interesting about this hand is I don't think there's any way in hell I fold AKo here normally, and given that assumption I really want to know if there's something I'm missing in the SNGPT analysis because this is both a potential leak, and a potential exploit (for those times when I'm the big stack and I've got a thinking player trapped in this situation).