I’ve been trying a new move lately after reading so much on these forums about controlling pot size, especially with a vulnerable hand like an over pair or TPTK. I’m not completely comfortable with this type of play because my instincts are always to push hard when I think I’m ahead, so please let me know what you think.

Party/Empire $100NL with $1 BB

Hero has $88 and Villain has me slightly covered. Not much of a read on Villain, but seems to be OK but not great.

MP calls and folded to Hero in CO with As-Qc who makes it $5 to go. Villain in SB calls, BB calls, and MP limper calls.

($20) Flop: Qd 9d 3h

Villain bets out $3, fold, fold, Hero raise to $20 and Villain calls.

I’m thinking he is either on a diamond draw or has me crushed with a set and is hoping to get raised with the smallish $3 bet. I’m thinking to myself, keep in mind the 2+2 forums ideas of keeping the pot small with this hand. So I raise to 20 to make sure I don’t let the draw hit for cheap.

($60) Turn: Qd 9d 3 h 9s

Villain checks. I figure the 9s is harmless since you wouldn’t think he calls 20 on the flop with second pair. If I bet here I’m thinking I have to bet 30 which pretty much commits my stack to this hand, since I have something like 60 left. Again, I’m thinking I’m either crushed by a set or way away of his weaker Q. I decide to check behind in an effort to control the pot and figuring I can probably then call something in the range of 20-35 on the river assuming no diamond or K.. Right move?

(60) River: Qd 9d 3h 9s 2c

Villain checks. At this point, I’m sure I have the best hand, because if he was going for the check raise on the turn there’s no way he checks the river after I checked behind him on the turn. My gut is telling me he has K-Q, since he called the 20 on the flop OOP. I decide to value bet the river for 20 pretty sure he’ll either fold or call with the second best hand, especially since I showed weakness on the turn. Right move?

Again, I’m trying to keep the pot small and not commit my whole stack to this hand. I also feel like there have been a lot of times when I thought I had the best hand in position and continued my bet on the turn only to get check raised and have to fold because I didn’t want to commit my whole stack—even though plenty of times I think the other guy is bluffing. So I guess I’m thinking of this as a general new play for me in similar situations. By controlling the pot, I can call a moderate size river bet which is basically how much I would have put in on the turn anyway, but this way I actually get to the showdown. Of course, I’m risking him hitting the river too, but I also induce river bluffs plenty of times too. This is also a play I would only do in position, I think. Please let me know what you think.

I’ll post the results in a little bit.