Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)
Think about it this way:
1. There is only one K in the deck so that's not that likely.
2. Villain at 1.7 agg. factor is too passive to take the turn to four bet's on a paired board with AA, probably.
3. Villain is not four-betting the flop with just a 2 or just a 3.
Villain is reasonable! 20/8/1.7 is going to be playing pretty straightforwardly. He's not cold-calling raises with lots of weird stuff. He's not taking the flop and turn to four bets with weird stuff.
As I said, on the turn, we take it to 4 bets because our equity even after that much action is probably about 75% or so.
On the river, the worst card has come, and I don't think we're winning even a majority of the time against a rational opponent. We shouldn't even bet, let alone raise, three-bet, or cap this river.
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