View Single Post
  #2  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:47 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

The only question here is the river.

No one with those stats has a two pair hand here if those stats are close to correct. By the point of the turn, we can probably put our opponent on exactly 22 or 33. It's probably split like 70%/23%/7% between 22/33/weird crap.

Anyway, once you get screwed by the river, I honestly think that we have enough information to check-call the river. It sounds absurd, but there is just so little that villain can have here other than a pur bluff hand or a weird AA that means we need to check the river. If villain is jamming a big draw of some kind checking on the end isn't bad because it lets them bluff as they probably missed on the river and A high is probably at least as likely to bluff the end as it is to pay off.

So, as weird as it sounds, a river check-call is probably correct here. (!!!)


P.S. Only because the river actually ends up being interesting am I not treating this as a bad beat post... which it actually is. It just happens to be a somewhat valid exercise in hand-reading.
Reply With Quote