Re: all-in - draw?
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call.
As you say, he's probably on a draw. Here is where having a good read on your opponent is vital. Has he been playing super aggressive? I think you have him beat. Either he has AJ or (more likely I would think) he is drawing to the nut flush. Either way, you have to call.
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I'm not sure how you can eliminate a set from villain's possible holdings.
Let's examine the hand from Villain's perspective. He had a hand strong enough to play OOP and to just call a button raise to 4xBB. To me, this points to either a pocket pair from JJ-22 or a suited connector. On the flop,
Villain check-reraised all-in. This eliminates all suited connectors except JJ, TT, 99, and 88. It also eliminates all suited connectors except K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 98s.
Unless villain is very, very aggressive, his range is: a set, OESD, straight flush draw, or pair plus straight or flush draw.
You are about 15% on average to win against a flush (12% vs JJ, 15% vs 99, 18% vs 88)
You are 65% to win against the TT OESD.
You are 57% to win against the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw.
You are 47% to win against Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.
You are 40% to win against J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.
You are 90% to win against 98s.
There is $135 in the pot and it costs you $83 to call, so you need to win 38% of the time to make this a +EV call.
Taking a rough average of all of the possible win %, Hero is about 43% to win against villain's range.
Overall:
This seems to be a +EV call, but we really need reads because Villain isn't really as likely to push with just a straight draw as he is to push with bottom set.
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