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I like the Chargers in this one. The Chargers won the last game 28-20 but that was about the closest that game ever was. Combine that with the fact that the Chargers still have something to play for while the Chiefs are out of the playoffs barring a longshot combination of games coming in.

The Chiefs have a December home game winning streak on the line but I don't think that is enough to get them past the Chargers this weekend.

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I think it's silly to argue the first game score has that strong of a positive correlation on the 2nd game, but if you are, assigning 3 points for home (from neutral) is not really the best way to translate home advantage.

In a normal game, giving 3 points to 2 equally skilled teams translates to about a 8% money line swing toward the home team. If you the road team is now the home team, they get about a 16% advantage from the previous matchup. Since an 8 point win translate to about a 75% winning percentage for SD, SD s/b expected to win game 2 about 59% of the time. 59% equates to about a SD -3 point spread, so on that basis SD -1.5 is a "bargain".

Of course, this assumes game 1's result is positively correlated to game 2.