Hiya Pokerjoker,

There are quite a few ambiguities with your question, but the easy answer would be:

if there were no one event(sun rising) more likely that the other (sun not rising), then the chance of it rising tommorow is 1 in 2. However the chance of having a sequence of a billion rises followed by another is 1 in ((1 billion + 1)!). My suspicion here is that one event is more likely than the other. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] That is, our assumption that it is equally as likely to rise or not, is not correct.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]