Re: Aces up in trouble
[ QUOTE ]
I agree in general, but Barry Greenstein says something very interesting. Basically, his thought is that probabilities matter alot less than the information your opponent provides by his betting. This is especially true in no limit, but even in limit when an opponent is playing as if rolled, it's not unreasonable to give him credit for that hand, even though it's improbable. Now, in limit this doesn't mean you can fold most times. But it does mean you can give less action than you otherwise would with aces.
[/ QUOTE ]
The point is that it is rare for any given opponent to be rolled on any given hand. But, you have 7 opponents on each hand, and over 10 or 11 hands, its not rare to see someone rolled up.
Now, we alll know that the chances of being rolled up are 1/425.. But, what are those chances if our opponent raises with a 3 door card? It changes. Its conditional probability that we use throughout the course of a hand. If you think the chances of someone being rolled up are 1/425 after he comes over the top of aces a couple of times, you'd need to stop playing poker.
|