[binions]

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Still didn't do the math but it appears a fold is clearcut in my first problem. When I said you have AQ I meant offsuit. His AK possibility is either. And pray tell why are some people implying that the tournament situation matters in this question? Amazing.

Anway question 2 is the same except he could also have two nines, which he will also fold if you move in. Now what?

Original question:

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

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So, he has 1 of 42 possible hands (16 AK + 36 AA-99 less 10 hands since you have 3 QQs, 3AAs, and 4 AKs blocked).

18 of 42 hands, you are an 11:9 dog to 99-JJ (and a 2:1 dog to hit the flop). Note if you have AQs, you are 13:12 dog.

The other 24 of 36 hands, you are at least a 2:1 dog to AA-QQ, and AK.

In no hand are you a favorite.

Preflop, you have no edge unless you go all in and get 99 or TT to fold. But that happens only 28.6% of the time. Meaning your edge is worth $130 * .286 = $37.18

That edge pales in comparison to the neg EV when you are called by the range of AA-JJ and AK.

What about taking a flop? You are only getting 13:8 on the call, and 23:8 implied odds since he is always going in.

You are 2:1 to hit your hand against JJ-99, and even when you hit your hand, there is a slight chance for an outdraw.

And when you hit your hand, you very well may be trailing AA-QQ and AK big time. Hitting the Q only helps against AK. Hitting the A only helps against QQ and KK. There is a much greater risk of hitting your hand and getting your money in bad than good. Of course, if you miss the flop, you are trailing each of these hands, he goes all in and you fold.

So, again you have a slight edge 42.9% of the time (ie v. JJ-99) getting nearly 3:1 implied odds on 2:1 shot, but giving up huge edge the other 57.1% of the time.

Easy fold given this hand range.

It would be a better question if he raised to 80 and had 500 chips, and you had AQs.