Re: When does raising top 2 become spewing?
I don't like raising the turn. I think you are behind more than you are ahead and w/o a solid read I believe call down mode is correct.
I think KT is a very logical hand here, and I believe that calling is not detrimental to our EV. If you raise he calls then check folds the river UI or bets..you call losing you three BB's 20% of the time and winning you two 80% of the time. (-3 x .2) + (2 x .8) = 1
If you call the turn there is a bout a 50% chance he'll bluff the river he if misses and he'll always bet if he's ahead. We lose 2 BB 20% of the time and win 1.5 80% of the time. (.2 x -2) + (1.5 x .8) = .8 BB. So it's not that much difference.
However, I also think he has a set a lot more than he has AQ here. I think calling down is fine.
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