Re: Overcalls? X-post from HUSH
Nice hand.
1. I think going for overcalls on the river is correct. The LP opponent may call with very little here, hoping that everyone is very weak. If the EP player has been sandbagging a big hand, you don't put yourself in the position of facing a third river bet heads-up in a pot with basically no overlay.
2. I don't think there's much you can do once you get raised behind on the river. I'm sure you win here much of the time but I doubt your a huge favorite and getting four-bet would really suck.
3. I don't think taking a shot at this turn is worthwhile. Anyone who has picked up a draw like you will come along, as will many A-high, overcard, and weak paired hands. The pot is simply not big enough to attack. With 1.5 BB in, you'll have to take the pot down over 40% of the time to show an immediate profit, which means you will have to think EACH of your opponents will be folding over 63% of the time. (1)
Given, you also have the outs to add to the value from the bet. Of your 13 total outs, discounting slightly because the potential your spades may be dead or you may get raised on the turn and have to pay more, let's say your outs add up to about 22% equity (the equivalent of 11 pure outs). Then you'd need to get to 18% or so bluff equity to get there. (We're smoothing things over and not considering implied odds and so on and so forth, but the approximation is close). That still means you'd need to have both of your opponents EACH folding over 40% of the time, which is quite a bit (though perhaps realizable). If, though, either of your opponents is identifiable as a calling station, it may be very hard to reach the needed 18% number and a bet becomes a losing proposition.
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