[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
Where I play, he has one of two hands : AAxx or KKxx. One is wonderful for you, the other for him. Each are equally likely. The big question is whether or not he's LAG enough to keep pushing Aces here without a QJ to back it up.

Let's say you re-raise to about $88 all-in. I assume he calls with KK and folds AA. If he has AA, you win $44.10. If he has KK, you'll win 11/42 rivers netting $109 each time and you'll lose 31/42 rivers costing you $88 each time. So, AA = +$44 while KK = +109*11/42 - 88*31/42 = $-36. Therefore, if AA and KK are equally likely, raising will win you an average of $4. Of course the odds go way up if he calls here with AA.

I like a call then check/call on a non-nut river better here because it wins more from AA and loses less to KK. Finally, on the off chance he has 66 or worse you still get near full value. This only falls apart if he has an insane wrap draw, like 4578 which he might check behind you if he misses.

I still vote call then check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely.

I'd probably fold there unless the villian was hyper aggressive, in which case I'd check-call the turn and either bet or check-crying call the river depending on if I hit it or not.