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Old 12-18-2005, 10:26 PM
binions binions is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
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Default Re: Calculating flush odds MY WAY.

[ QUOTE ]

Is it ever common practice to take a away an out or so if you read another opponent for a flush draw in a 3 way pot?

A hand I played recently illustrated this. Essentially, I had the Ace of clubs and the flop was 3 low clubs. Early position bet and on the flop and turn both another player before me called and I called. If my read on the player before me is right and I believe he has the K or Q of clubs, should I ever take that into account when determining my outs? Or is it too likely that your read is simply wrong for it to have an effect on what you believe your odds of hitting the flush are?


[/ QUOTE ]

Whenever you have enough info to put someone on a range of hands, you discount your outs according to that range to come up with your effective outs.

If you have a naked Ace on a 3 flush board heads up, you either have 7 outs (if you put the other guy on a made flush), or 8-11 outs if you put him on the K of the suit. You might have as many as 11 outs if your ace is live and he doesn't already have a flush. (This assumes your Ace high is behind. You might be ahead.)

And so, instead of 47 and 46 unseen cards, you would use 45 and 44 unseen cards if you have discounted your outs by your foe's range of hands.

For a discussion about using 45 and 44 unseen cards, see the Appendix in Barry Greenstein's Ace on the River.
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