[Paxosmotic]

The reason some of us read books and study the game is because we understand that the game is more complicated than "will he fold?" The question is "will he fold often enough to make this bet profitable?" which is a vastly different question. The first question requires some combination of being a mind reader or a home game champion who is a pompous ass. The second requires knowledge of game theory, pot odds, and bluffing frequency. So whatever your poison is, run with it.